What would a US-Iran war look like?

A hypothetical war between the United States and Iran would be a complex and multifaceted conflict with significant implications for the region and the world. Here are some potential aspects to consider:

Military Engagements

Initial Strikes

  • Air and Missile Strikes: The US would likely begin with extensive air and missile strikes targeting Iran’s military infrastructure, including nuclear facilities, missile bases, air defenses, and command-and-control centers.
  • Cyber Warfare: Both sides might engage in cyber operations to disrupt each other’s communications, command systems, and critical infrastructure.

Naval Battles

  • Strait of Hormuz: Control over this critical chokepoint for global oil shipments would be a primary focus. Iran might attempt to mine the strait or use small, fast boats to harass and attack US and allied shipping.
  • US Naval Superiority: The US Navy, with its carrier strike groups and advanced submarines, would likely seek to neutralize Iran’s naval capabilities and ensure freedom of navigation.

Ground Forces

  • Limited Ground Engagements: The US is unlikely to deploy large numbers of ground troops due to the high costs and risks. Instead, special forces and local allies might conduct targeted operations.
  • Proxy Warfare: Iran might leverage its network of proxy militias in the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, to conduct asymmetric attacks against US interests and allies.

Regional Impact

Destabilization

  • Spillover into Neighboring Countries: The conflict could destabilize Iraq, Afghanistan, and other neighboring countries, exacerbating sectarian tensions and potentially leading to wider regional conflicts.
  • Terrorism: Increased risk of terrorist attacks against US and allied targets worldwide, fueled by Iranian proxies or inspired militants.

Humanitarian Crisis

  • Refugees and Displacement: Significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Iran could lead to a humanitarian crisis with large numbers of refugees.
  • Economic Impact: Disruption of oil supplies could cause global economic turmoil, with rising energy prices and potential shortages.

Global Repercussions

Diplomatic Fallout

  • International Condemnation: The war would likely draw widespread condemnation and calls for restraint from the international community, including the UN.
  • Strained Alliances: US alliances, particularly with European and Middle Eastern nations, might be tested, as allies balance their security concerns with economic interests and domestic public opinion.

Economic Impact

  • Oil Prices: The conflict would likely cause a spike in oil prices, affecting the global economy and particularly impacting countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
  • Sanctions and Trade: Further economic sanctions on Iran and potential retaliatory actions by Iran against US economic interests could disrupt global trade.

Potential Outcomes

Short-term

  • Military Victory but Political Quagmire: The US might achieve a swift military victory, but long-term political and strategic goals would be harder to attain.
  • Ongoing Insurgency: Iran’s capability to wage asymmetric warfare through proxies and insurgent tactics could lead to a prolonged and costly conflict.

Long-term

  • Regional Power Shifts: A weakened Iran could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, potentially emboldening regional rivals like Saudi Arabia and Israel.
  • Global Security Environment: The conflict could reshape global security dynamics, influencing US-China and US-Russia relations, and impacting NATO’s cohesion and strategies.

In summary, a US-Iran war would be complex, with potentially devastating consequences not only for the involved countries but also for regional and global stability. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and avoid conflict would be crucial to prevent such a scenario.