In Short –
Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season has concluded, with seven teams having a likelihood of over 90% of making the AFC playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. This marks the first time this has happened in the ESPN FPI era since 2008. The remaining three weeks of AFC football are primarily for seeding. This week’s column delves into the Vikings’ journey to the playoffs with Sam Darnold under center, the question of whether Darnold is the new offensive mastermind and quarterback guru, the Lions’ chances of overcoming injuries and winning the Super Bowl, the Defensive Player of the Year race, and the brilliance of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The column also discusses the Vikings’ struggles with veteran quarterbacks Darnold, Justin Fields, and Andy Dalton, and the comparison between O’Connell’s offense and McVay’s. The column concludes by highlighting the brilliance of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
In the NFL, quarterbacks like McVay and Goff have faced challenges in their careers, with defenses affecting their performance. Goff, who was not the quarterback McVay needed for his new offense, has since improved and blossomed into an excellent veteran passer. In Detroit, Darnold can recover his career similarly to Goff in his time with the Rams. O’Connell’s offensive insulation around Darnold remains similar to that of McVay in their heyday. Darnold lines up under center on 29% of his dropbacks, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL. However, Goff now runs a more quick game in Detroit, with 37% of his passes out in under 2.5 seconds, compared to 25% in his Super Bowl season with L.A. In 2018, Goff hammered the intermediate level of the field off long play-action dropbacks and rollouts, with 37% of his passes
In Details –
With Week 15 in the books, the AFC playoff picture is virtually locked in, leaving NFC drama — particularly in the NFC West — as the league’s remaining suspense. Yet, amidst that focus, an unlikely success story continues to unfold in Minnesota. Against all odds, head coach Kevin O’Connell has orchestrated a playoff-bound campaign with Sam Darnold under center, reviving a quarterback once deemed irreparable and cementing O’Connell’s status as one of the NFL’s top offensive minds.
When the 3-0 Vikings rolled out of Week 3 with a statement win against the Texans, few believed it was sustainable. Darnold’s history of inconsistency and turnovers made their hot start feel like an illusion, a coaching masterclass unlikely to hold up over time. But here we are, 15 weeks in, and Minnesota isn’t just surviving — they’re thriving. The reason? Kevin O’Connell’s offensive system, a throwback to the McVay era of 2017-18 that powered Jared Goff and the Rams to a Super Bowl.
O’Connell’s System: Back to the Basics, McVay Style
O’Connell has leaned into a style of offense that once defined Sean McVay’s early success. He has insulated Darnold, leveraging under-center snaps, heavy play-action, and deep-developing intermediate throws to simplify the game for his quarterback. Darnold lines up under center on 29% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL, and executes play-action on 27% of passes — a hallmark of the old-school McVay system.
The results speak for themselves. Darnold’s 3.09-second time to throw ranks among the slowest in the league (third-lowest), but it’s intentional. By leaning into extended play-action fakes, O’Connell buys time for routes to develop downfield, allowing Darnold to target intermediate windows and maximize his arm talent — the same formula McVay used to transform Goff into a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback.
Darnold’s Redemption Arc Mirrors Goff’s Journey
The comparison to Jared Goff isn’t just schematic — it’s personal. Goff, who struggled in L.A. under McVay’s later innovations, found new life in Detroit with an offense tailored to his strengths. Similarly, Darnold, who floundered through a rocky start to his NFL career with the Jets and Panthers, appears to be blossoming under O’Connell’s guidance.
In both cases, the coaches opted for simplicity and insulation over reinvention. While McVay, Shanahan, and Mike McDaniel have evolved their offenses to adapt to defensive trends, O’Connell remains a purist — trusting that his scheme still works. And it has. Darnold has cut down on mistakes, embraced O’Connell’s system, and executed the offense as intended.
The Long-Term Outlook: Can the Vikings Keep This Up?
Of course, the question remains: Can O’Connell keep scheming the Vikings into wins for the rest of the season and beyond? The league’s defensive minds eventually adjusted to McVay and Goff, forcing McVay to evolve and ultimately pursue Matthew Stafford. But perhaps O’Connell sees a different future. Perhaps he believes Darnold can mirror Goff’s late-career resurgence — an imperfect but capable passer who thrives in a scheme built around his strengths.
The Vikings’ playoff berth is a testament to O’Connell’s brilliance, but the real test begins in January. For now, Minnesota fans can enjoy the ride: their team, once written off, is surging into the postseason behind one of the most surprising quarterback revivals in recent memory. Kevin O’Connell isn’t just playing the hits — he’s turning Sam Darnold into the star of the show.
Up Next: The Vikings face their toughest stretch yet as they look to secure seeding and prove this run is more than just a flash in the pan. Keep an eye on O’Connell’s offense and whether defenses can finally find an answer to Minnesota’s old-school magic.