During his first term as US president, Donald Trump was seen as a friend to Taiwan, but his unpredictability has led to a more volatile relationship with Washington. Taiwan is now preparing for a more volatile relationship with Washington, its most important security guarantor, as Trump claims Taiwan should pay the US more for “protection” and that it has “stolen” America’s chip business. The Taiwanese government has expressed confidence in bilateral ties, citing longstanding bipartisan support for the island.

Experts say Taiwan will closely watch Trump’s foreign policy and defense appointments, his response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and his demands on allies for clues on the future of the relationship. The stakes of the relationship are higher than ever as Beijing ramps up military intimidation of Taiwan, sending fighter jets and warships near the island almost daily and launching large-scale drills to punish “separatist acts.”

Trump is a less vocal supporter of Taiwan than Joe Biden, and the US has long been governed by a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over how it would respond to an invasion of Taiwan.